New Papers and Notes
“Unintended Consequences of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: The Role of Banks”, with Ahmet Degerli and Gazi Kabas (revision requested at Management Science)
“Credit Supply, Housing Demand and Boom-Bust Cycles”, with Bulent Guler and Burhanettin Kuruscu (revision requested at AEJ: Macro)
“Price Search, Consumption Inequality and Expenditure Inequality over the Life Cycle”, with Bulent Guler and Temel Taskin (International Economic Review)
“The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies” with Enrique Alberola-Ila, Gong Cheng, and Richhild Moessner BIS Bulletin | No 23 Jun 2020
“Central bank bond purchases in emerging market economies” with Mathias Drehmann and Boris Hofmann BIS Bulletin | No 20 Jun 2020
Work in Progress
“Unemployment Insurance and Macro-Financial (In)Stability” with Ahmet Degerli, Bulent Guler, Gazi Kabas, and Burhanettin Kuruscu (preliminary draft available upon request)
Abstract We question the predominantly held view that unemployment insurance (UI) policies automatically stabilize economic fluctuations. We identify two mechanisms that can overturn the stabilizing effects. First, households in more generous UI economies, ex-ante, save less, hold less liquid assets, and borrow more. Specifically, in the mortgage market, down payment ratios decline, and mortgage credit increases. As a result, both bank and household balance sheets weaken, which in turn increases the vulnerability to negative shocks. Second, more generous UI policies amplify the economy’s response to expansionary shocks as households with smaller income risk increase their debt, consumption, and housing demand more. As a result, booms get amplified. Both a quantitative general equilibrium macroeconomic model and empirical evidence from the U.S. mortgage and housing markets support our arguments.
“Monetary Policy Transmission with Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgages: The Role of Credit Supply” with Fatih Altunok and Steven Ongena (preliminary draft available upon request)
Abstract A decline in monetary policy rates reduces adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) payments. As a result, a looser monetary policy can induce a stronger increase in consumption and a faster revival of economies with higher ARM shares. In this paper, however, we argue that this view is incomplete because it does not take into account banks: reduced mortgage payments from households reduce bank interest income, which in turn suppresses bank lending. The overall effect, therefore, will depend on the relative importance of these competing channels. We provide bank-, and country-level analysis to support our hypothesis.
“Macroprudential Policy Evaluation” with Bulent Guler and Burhanettin Kuruscu
Abstract Macroprudential policies have become popular, in particular after the 2008 crisis. However, policymakers and literature lack a rich and realistic quantitative framework that can be used for macroprudential policy analysis. This project offers one. In particular, we build on the framework developed by Arslan, Guler, and Kuruscu (2020) and study the effects of the most commonly used policy tools including restrictions on loan-to-value ratio, debt-service-to-income ratio, and bank capital requirements.
“Monetary Policy Analysis with Indebted HANK ” with Bulent Guler and Burhanettin Kuruscu
Abstract We extend the heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) framework by incorporating long-term mortgage and firm debt, and banks that issue and hold the debt on their balance sheets. We calibrate the model to the US data and quantify the relative importance of bank, firm, and household balance sheets in monetary policy transmission.
Yavuz Arslan 